Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Beiqi Foton Motor Co., Ltd. (600166.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.71 - $1.04$0.87
Multi-Stage$1.13 - $1.25$1.19
Blended Fair Value$1.03
Current Price$2.74
Upside-62.43%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-26.61%-11.93%0.020.000.000.030.060.090.120.070.060.02
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%-48.75%-35.55%-19.09%63.59%27.63%210.18%-74.85%
Dividend Yield--0.82%0.00%0.00%1.20%1.52%4.97%4.87%2.85%1.72%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)761.01
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)124.12
(=) Cash Retained (M)636.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)152.2095.1357.08
Cash Retained (M)636.89636.89636.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-152.20-95.13-57.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)484.68541.76579.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,917.407,917.407,917.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.070.07
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate-1.69%-0.69%0.31%
Fair Value$0.71$0.87$1.04
Upside / Downside-73.98%-68.25%-62.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)761.01755.75750.54745.36740.21735.10757.15
Payout Ratio16.31%31.05%45.79%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)124.12234.65343.64451.12557.10661.59700.37

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate-1.69%-0.69%0.31%
Year 1 PV (M)213.28215.45217.62
Year 2 PV (M)283.90289.71295.57
Year 3 PV (M)338.75349.20359.85
Year 4 PV (M)380.24395.95412.14
Year 5 PV (M)410.43431.74453.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,349.977,731.478,128.64
Equity Value (M)8,976.579,413.509,867.74
Shares Outstanding (M)7,917.407,917.407,917.40
Fair Value$1.13$1.19$1.25
Upside / Downside-58.62%-56.61%-54.51%

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