Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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KPJ Healthcare Berhad (5878.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.38 - $15.76$14.77
Multi-Stage$3.27 - $3.58$3.43
Blended Fair Value$9.10
Current Price$2.66
Upside242.03%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.02%15.56%0.040.030.020.010.020.020.010.020.020.02
YoY Growth--23.88%68.32%266.09%-67.38%-15.58%36.46%-30.15%27.53%-15.14%95.94%
Dividend Yield--1.57%1.78%1.76%0.54%1.62%2.12%1.45%2.33%1.61%1.79%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.66
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)187.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)158.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.1343.2125.92
Cash Retained (M)158.00158.00158.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.13-43.21-25.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.86114.79132.07
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,361.684,361.684,361.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.040.040.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.020.030.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.070.07
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.38$14.77$15.76
Upside / Downside402.91%455.27%492.51%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.66368.13392.06417.54444.68473.59487.79
Payout Ratio54.29%61.43%68.57%75.72%82.86%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)187.67226.15268.85316.15368.46426.23451.21

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.54%5.54%5.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)212.28214.29216.30
Year 2 PV (M)236.88241.39245.94
Year 3 PV (M)261.46268.97276.61
Year 4 PV (M)286.03297.03308.34
Year 5 PV (M)310.58325.58341.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,967.7713,594.1214,244.44
Equity Value (M)14,274.9914,941.3715,632.79
Shares Outstanding (M)4,361.684,361.684,361.68
Fair Value$3.27$3.43$3.58
Upside / Downside23.04%28.78%34.74%

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