Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hong Leong Bank Berhad (5819.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$100.68 - $411.24$262.73
Multi-Stage$51.84 - $56.78$54.26
Blended Fair Value$158.50
Current Price$19.60
Upside708.65%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.30%7.22%0.710.630.580.530.350.500.480.460.410.37
YoY Growth--12.73%8.66%9.02%53.06%-30.42%4.20%4.36%12.20%9.55%5.63%
Dividend Yield--3.60%2.91%2.96%2.58%1.83%3.30%2.91%2.22%2.57%2.83%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,273.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)574.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,699.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)854.69534.18320.51
Cash Retained (M)3,699.433,699.433,699.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-854.69-534.18-320.51
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,844.743,165.253,378.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.272,061.272,061.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.381.541.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.280.280.28
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.381.541.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.811.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Fair Value$100.68$262.73$411.24
Upside / Downside413.66%1,240.44%1,998.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,273.444,539.314,821.715,121.695,440.325,778.785,952.15
Payout Ratio13.43%28.75%44.06%59.37%74.69%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)574.011,304.852,124.413,040.894,063.185,200.905,505.74

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate5.22%6.22%7.22%
Year 1 PV (M)1,208.521,220.011,231.49
Year 2 PV (M)1,822.311,857.111,892.24
Year 3 PV (M)2,415.892,485.422,556.28
Year 4 PV (M)2,989.743,105.033,223.62
Year 5 PV (M)3,544.373,716.023,894.27
PV of Terminal Value (M)94,875.8399,470.74104,241.97
Equity Value (M)106,856.66111,854.34117,039.88
Shares Outstanding (M)2,061.272,061.272,061.27
Fair Value$51.84$54.26$56.78
Upside / Downside164.49%176.86%189.70%

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