Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nichias Corporation (5393.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,819.86 - $7,520.66$6,064.45
Multi-Stage$4,352.56 - $4,745.11$4,545.31
Blended Fair Value$5,304.88
Current Price$5,558.00
Upside-4.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS6.47%13.32%104.1696.6192.6384.3578.2476.1266.2258.5149.5035.25
YoY Growth--7.81%4.31%9.81%7.82%2.77%14.96%13.19%18.19%40.42%18.22%
Dividend Yield--1.89%2.03%3.10%3.74%2.80%3.39%3.30%2.11%1.91%2.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)30,353.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,015.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)23,338.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6,070.603,794.132,276.48
Cash Retained (M)23,338.0023,338.0023,338.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-6,070.60-3,794.13-2,276.48
(=) Excess Retained (M)17,267.4019,543.8821,061.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
LTM Dividend per Share108.89108.89108.89
(+) Excess Retained per Share268.04303.38326.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend376.93412.27435.83
WACC / Discount Rate12.64%12.64%12.64%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Fair Value$4,819.86$6,064.45$7,520.66
Upside / Downside-13.28%9.11%35.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)30,353.0032,013.8433,765.5635,613.1337,561.7939,617.0840,805.59
Payout Ratio23.11%36.49%49.87%63.24%76.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,015.0011,681.5716,837.8222,523.3728,780.7035,655.3737,745.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate12.64%12.64%12.64%
Growth Rate4.47%5.47%6.47%
Year 1 PV (M)10,272.2110,370.5310,468.86
Year 2 PV (M)13,020.0013,270.4513,523.28
Year 3 PV (M)15,315.1515,759.1616,211.67
Year 4 PV (M)17,208.8617,877.2718,564.97
Year 5 PV (M)18,747.2819,661.8720,611.80
PV of Terminal Value (M)205,831.23215,872.68226,302.26
Equity Value (M)280,394.74292,811.97305,682.84
Shares Outstanding (M)64.4264.4264.42
Fair Value$4,352.56$4,545.31$4,745.11
Upside / Downside-21.69%-18.22%-14.63%

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