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Definitive Analysis

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Tenaga Nasional Berhad (5347.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated ElectricSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.73 - $18.82$14.18
Multi-Stage$20.33 - $22.33$21.31
Blended Fair Value$17.74
Current Price$14.38
Upside23.40%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.39%8.10%0.530.440.370.790.900.520.500.380.280.28
YoY Growth--21.13%16.33%-52.25%-12.75%73.71%2.80%32.94%34.75%0.00%16.00%
Dividend Yield--3.84%3.83%4.06%8.73%8.89%4.31%3.99%2.45%2.00%2.11%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,754.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,964.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,790.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)950.98594.36356.62
Cash Retained (M)1,790.301,790.301,790.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-950.98-594.36-356.62
(=) Excess Retained (M)839.321,195.941,433.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,817.255,817.255,817.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.140.210.25
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.140.210.25
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.650.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate0.18%1.18%2.18%
Fair Value$10.73$14.18$18.82
Upside / Downside-25.38%-1.42%30.89%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,754.904,810.974,867.694,925.094,983.165,041.925,193.18
Payout Ratio62.35%67.88%73.41%78.94%84.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,964.603,265.623,573.323,887.834,209.264,537.734,803.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.28%6.28%6.28%
Growth Rate0.18%1.18%2.18%
Year 1 PV (M)3,042.183,072.553,102.92
Year 2 PV (M)3,101.073,163.293,226.13
Year 3 PV (M)3,143.163,238.233,335.20
Year 4 PV (M)3,170.193,298.683,431.03
Year 5 PV (M)3,183.743,345.853,514.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)102,640.09107,866.21113,303.08
Equity Value (M)118,280.43123,984.81129,912.86
Shares Outstanding (M)5,817.255,817.255,817.25
Fair Value$20.33$21.31$22.33
Upside / Downside41.40%48.21%55.30%

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