Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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LY Corporation (4689.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Internet Content & InformationSector: Communication Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$438.28 - $807.41$590.31
Multi-Stage$341.28 - $372.26$356.49
Blended Fair Value$473.40
Current Price$476.10
Upside-0.57%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-1.52%5.17%5.885.906.145.955.946.347.117.117.107.10
YoY Growth---0.38%-3.84%3.14%0.09%-6.32%-10.75%0.05%0.05%0.03%99.96%
Dividend Yield--1.11%1.56%1.77%1.50%1.07%1.21%2.24%1.93%1.45%1.57%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)204,524.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)49,910.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)154,614.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)40,904.8025,565.5015,339.30
Cash Retained (M)154,614.00154,614.00154,614.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-40,904.80-25,565.50-15,339.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)113,709.20129,048.50139,274.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,098.317,098.317,098.31
(=) Excess Retained per Share16.0218.1819.62
LTM Dividend per Share7.037.037.03
(+) Excess Retained per Share16.0218.1819.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend23.0525.2126.65
WACC / Discount Rate11.05%11.05%11.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$438.28$590.31$807.41
Upside / Downside-7.94%23.99%69.59%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)204,524.00217,818.06231,976.23247,054.69263,113.24280,215.60288,622.07
Payout Ratio24.40%37.52%50.64%63.76%76.88%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)49,910.0081,730.57117,476.95157,525.04202,283.04252,194.04266,975.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate11.05%11.05%11.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)72,907.9273,598.9974,290.06
Year 2 PV (M)93,483.0795,263.6697,061.05
Year 3 PV (M)111,820.15115,030.10118,300.91
Year 4 PV (M)128,091.44133,017.47138,084.24
Year 5 PV (M)142,457.60149,338.35156,482.45
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,873,730.551,964,232.432,058,198.04
Equity Value (M)2,422,490.722,530,481.012,642,416.74
Shares Outstanding (M)7,098.317,098.317,098.31
Fair Value$341.28$356.49$372.26
Upside / Downside-28.32%-25.12%-21.81%

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