Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Otsuka Holdings Co., Ltd. (4578.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$18,132.53 - $45,290.75$27,210.77
Multi-Stage$27,770.89 - $30,533.62$29,125.79
Blended Fair Value$28,168.28
Current Price$7,859.00
Upside258.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS3.74%2.82%125.33104.48104.30105.10104.56104.30103.80102.99102.6991.54
YoY Growth--19.96%0.17%-0.76%0.52%0.24%0.48%0.79%0.30%12.17%-3.54%
Dividend Yield--1.62%1.65%2.48%2.48%2.23%2.47%2.38%1.93%2.04%2.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)449,106.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70,975.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)378,131.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89,821.2056,138.2533,682.95
Cash Retained (M)378,131.00378,131.00378,131.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-89,821.20-56,138.25-33,682.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)288,309.80321,992.75344,448.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share541.24604.47646.63
LTM Dividend per Share133.24133.24133.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share541.24604.47646.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend674.48737.71779.87
WACC / Discount Rate5.62%5.62%5.62%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Fair Value$18,132.53$27,210.77$45,290.75
Upside / Downside130.72%246.24%476.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)449,106.00461,830.50474,915.53488,371.29502,208.30516,437.34531,930.46
Payout Ratio15.80%30.64%45.48%60.32%75.16%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70,975.00141,518.24216,001.89294,592.63377,463.39464,793.61492,035.68

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.62%5.62%5.62%
Growth Rate1.83%2.83%3.83%
Year 1 PV (M)132,683.61133,986.56135,289.51
Year 2 PV (M)189,874.79193,622.23197,406.29
Year 3 PV (M)242,793.20250,016.33257,381.32
Year 4 PV (M)291,671.74303,298.43315,269.32
Year 5 PV (M)336,732.11353,593.53371,123.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,599,346.0314,280,315.4514,988,294.64
Equity Value (M)14,793,101.4815,514,832.5416,264,764.82
Shares Outstanding (M)532.68532.68532.68
Fair Value$27,770.89$29,125.79$30,533.62
Upside / Downside253.36%270.60%288.52%

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