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Definitive Analysis

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Strong H Machinery Technology (Cayman) Incorporation (4560.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.88 - $37.83$30.96
Multi-Stage$59.83 - $65.91$62.81
Blended Fair Value$46.88
Current Price$33.10
Upside41.64%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-29.31%8.27%0.602.201.801.003.973.402.391.531.650.95
YoY Growth---72.73%22.22%80.10%-74.85%16.87%41.93%56.25%-7.18%72.94%252.40%
Dividend Yield--1.72%5.93%4.58%2.38%9.30%7.98%4.18%2.07%3.30%2.22%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)194.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)81.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)112.54
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.8524.2814.57
Cash Retained (M)112.54112.54112.54
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.85-24.28-14.57
(=) Excess Retained (M)73.6988.2697.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)68.1668.1668.16
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.081.291.44
LTM Dividend per Share1.201.201.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.081.291.44
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.282.492.64
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-2.57%-1.57%-0.57%
Fair Value$24.88$30.96$37.83
Upside / Downside-24.84%-6.47%14.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)194.26191.20188.20185.24182.32179.46184.84
Payout Ratio42.07%51.65%61.24%70.83%80.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)81.7298.76115.25131.20146.61161.51170.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.36%6.36%6.36%
Growth Rate-2.57%-1.57%-0.57%
Year 1 PV (M)91.9292.8693.80
Year 2 PV (M)99.83101.89103.97
Year 3 PV (M)105.76109.05112.41
Year 4 PV (M)110.00114.59119.31
Year 5 PV (M)112.78118.69124.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,557.843,744.223,938.32
Equity Value (M)4,078.134,281.294,492.66
Shares Outstanding (M)68.1668.1668.16
Fair Value$59.83$62.81$65.91
Upside / Downside80.75%89.75%99.12%

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