Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Towa Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (4553.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34,280.74 - $83,404.51$78,162.24
Multi-Stage$12,005.46 - $13,149.31$12,566.84
Blended Fair Value$45,364.54
Current Price$2,952.00
Upside1,436.74%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS7.40%8.76%59.9959.9762.9748.9844.0041.9931.6731.6331.6535.65
YoY Growth--0.03%-4.77%28.58%11.31%4.79%32.58%0.13%-0.06%-11.23%37.65%
Dividend Yield--2.01%2.03%3.56%1.99%1.63%2.11%1.12%1.60%1.81%2.01%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20,645.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,497.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)17,148.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4,129.002,580.631,548.38
Cash Retained (M)17,148.0017,148.0017,148.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-4,129.00-2,580.63-1,548.38
(=) Excess Retained (M)13,019.0014,567.3815,599.63
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)49.2349.2349.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share264.47295.92316.89
LTM Dividend per Share71.0471.0471.04
(+) Excess Retained per Share264.47295.92316.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend335.51366.96387.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34,280.74$78,162.24$83,404.51
Upside / Downside1,061.27%2,547.77%2,725.36%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20,645.0021,986.9323,416.0824,938.1226,559.1028,285.4429,134.00
Payout Ratio16.94%31.55%46.16%60.78%75.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,497.006,937.0910,809.6215,156.2620,022.3025,456.9026,948.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)6,450.576,511.716,572.85
Year 2 PV (M)9,346.569,524.589,704.29
Year 3 PV (M)12,185.8012,535.6112,892.05
Year 4 PV (M)14,969.1315,544.8016,136.92
Year 5 PV (M)17,697.3618,552.1519,439.66
PV of Terminal Value (M)530,346.17555,962.09582,558.39
Equity Value (M)590,995.59618,630.94647,304.15
Shares Outstanding (M)49.2349.2349.23
Fair Value$12,005.46$12,566.84$13,149.31
Upside / Downside306.69%325.71%345.44%

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