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Definitive Analysis

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Eisai Co., Ltd. (4523.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,745.77 - $2,756.24$2,207.86
Multi-Stage$3,842.96 - $4,219.31$4,027.49
Blended Fair Value$3,117.68
Current Price$4,975.00
Upside-37.33%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-0.13%0.62%161.50162.82162.74162.68162.65162.58152.33152.23152.14152.00
YoY Growth---0.81%0.05%0.03%0.02%0.04%6.73%0.07%0.06%0.09%0.13%
Dividend Yield--3.89%2.44%1.67%2.84%1.49%1.90%2.43%1.95%2.45%2.67%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)49,368.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45,151.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,217.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)9,873.606,171.003,702.60
Cash Retained (M)4,217.004,217.004,217.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-9,873.60-6,171.00-3,702.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-5,656.60-1,954.00514.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)282.01282.01282.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share-20.06-6.931.82
LTM Dividend per Share160.11160.11160.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share-20.06-6.931.82
(=) Adjusted Dividend140.05153.18161.93
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.38%-0.38%0.62%
Fair Value$1,745.77$2,207.86$2,756.24
Upside / Downside-64.91%-55.62%-44.60%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)49,368.0049,181.0048,994.7148,809.1248,624.2448,440.0649,893.26
Payout Ratio91.46%91.17%90.87%90.58%90.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45,151.0044,836.5644,523.8544,212.8743,903.6143,596.0546,151.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-1.38%-0.38%0.62%
Year 1 PV (M)41,664.6442,087.1142,509.58
Year 2 PV (M)38,447.0839,230.7240,022.27
Year 3 PV (M)35,477.6336,567.8237,680.12
Year 4 PV (M)32,737.1934,085.3235,474.66
Year 5 PV (M)30,208.1231,771.0233,397.94
PV of Terminal Value (M)905,201.15952,034.151,000,785.82
Equity Value (M)1,083,735.811,135,776.141,189,870.39
Shares Outstanding (M)282.01282.01282.01
Fair Value$3,842.96$4,027.49$4,219.31
Upside / Downside-22.75%-19.05%-15.19%

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