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Definitive Analysis

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HIMACS, Ltd. (4299.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Software - ApplicationSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4,585.16 - $20,767.30$10,552.48
Multi-Stage$2,406.39 - $2,630.82$2,516.56
Blended Fair Value$6,534.52
Current Price$1,250.00
Upside422.76%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS15.84%15.37%43.8943.7243.6330.0121.0421.0419.9217.8516.3814.06
YoY Growth--0.39%0.20%45.40%42.62%0.00%5.63%11.59%8.95%16.56%33.79%
Dividend Yield--3.61%3.04%3.02%2.17%1.87%2.27%2.59%2.32%2.37%2.96%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,211.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)522.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)689.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)242.20151.3890.83
Cash Retained (M)689.00689.00689.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-242.20-151.38-90.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)446.80537.63598.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)11.6011.6011.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share38.5346.3651.58
LTM Dividend per Share45.0145.0145.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share38.5346.3651.58
(=) Adjusted Dividend83.5491.3796.59
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$4,585.16$10,552.48$20,767.30
Upside / Downside266.81%744.20%1,561.38%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,211.001,289.721,373.551,462.831,557.911,659.171,708.95
Payout Ratio43.10%52.48%61.86%71.24%80.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)522.00676.89849.721,042.151,256.001,493.261,580.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.42%7.42%7.42%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)624.21630.12636.04
Year 2 PV (M)722.59736.35750.25
Year 3 PV (M)817.25840.71864.62
Year 4 PV (M)908.29943.22979.15
Year 5 PV (M)995.821,043.921,093.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,838.6924,990.1126,185.59
Equity Value (M)27,906.8529,184.4430,509.51
Shares Outstanding (M)11.6011.6011.60
Fair Value$2,406.39$2,516.56$2,630.82
Upside / Downside92.51%101.32%110.47%

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