Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $106.81 - $216.91 | $149.28 |
| Multi-Stage | $155.88 - $170.73 | $163.16 |
| Blended Fair Value | $156.22 | |
| Current Price | $119.00 | |
| Upside | 31.28% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 7.42% | 0.00% | 5.50 | 5.50 | 2.31 | 9.69 | 4.12 | 3.85 | 4.23 | 4.64 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 0.00% | 138.10% | -76.17% | 135.51% | 7.00% | -9.09% | -8.73% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.74% | 3.74% | 1.25% | 6.25% | 2.74% | 2.56% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% | 0.00% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 812.67 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 728.00 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 84.67 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 162.53 | 101.58 | 60.95 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 84.67 | 84.67 | 84.67 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -162.53 | -101.58 | -60.95 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | -77.87 | -16.92 | 23.72 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 130.00 | 130.00 | 130.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | -0.60 | -0.13 | 0.18 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 5.60 | 5.60 | 5.60 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | -0.60 | -0.13 | 0.18 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 5.00 | 5.47 | 5.78 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.61% | 6.61% | 6.61% |
| Growth Rate | 1.84% | 2.84% | 3.84% |
| Fair Value | $106.81 | $149.28 | $216.91 |
| Upside / Downside | -10.24% | 25.45% | 82.28% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 812.67 | 835.74 | 859.46 | 883.86 | 908.96 | 934.76 | 962.80 |
| Payout Ratio | 89.58% | 89.67% | 89.75% | 89.83% | 89.92% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 728.00 | 749.37 | 771.36 | 794.00 | 817.30 | 841.28 | 890.59 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.61% | 6.61% | 6.61% |
| Growth Rate | 1.84% | 2.84% | 3.84% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 696.09 | 702.92 | 709.76 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 665.58 | 678.71 | 691.97 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 636.40 | 655.33 | 674.64 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 608.50 | 632.76 | 657.73 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 581.83 | 610.96 | 641.25 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 17,075.69 | 17,930.68 | 18,819.58 |
| Equity Value (M) | 20,264.08 | 21,211.36 | 22,194.93 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 130.00 | 130.00 | 130.00 |
| Fair Value | $155.88 | $163.16 | $170.73 |
| Upside / Downside | 30.99% | 37.11% | 43.47% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ORA | Ormat Technologies, Inc. | 0.42% | $0.48 | 21.81% |
| VLTO | Veralto Corporation | 0.42% | $0.42 | 11.39% |
| CEG | Constellation Energy Corporation | 0.41% | $1.52 | 17.38% |
| EXPE | Expedia Group, Inc. | 0.41% | $1.15 | 10.88% |
| GE | GE Aerospace | 0.40% | $1.29 | 17.08% |
| GEHCV | GE HealthCare Technologies Inc. | 0.40% | $0.23 | 5.05% |
| ATMU | Atmus Filtration Technologies Inc. | 0.39% | $0.20 | 8.42% |
| BMNR | Bitmine Immersion Technologies, Inc. | 0.39% | $0.12 | 0.85% |
| CHDN | Churchill Downs Incorporated | 0.39% | $0.43 | 7.61% |
| PLPC | Preformed Line Products Company | 0.39% | $0.83 | 11.03% |
| AAPL | Apple Inc. | 0.38% | $1.03 | 13.77% |
| AMOT | Allied Motion Technologies Inc. | 0.38% | $0.12 | 21.85% |
| CASY | Casey's General Stores, Inc. | 0.38% | $2.09 | 12.85% |
| EA | Electronic Arts Inc. | 0.38% | $0.77 | 21.92% |
| LOB | Live Oak Bancshares, Inc. | 0.37% | $0.13 | 8.44% |
| PCG-PA | Pacific Gas and Electric Company | 0.37% | $0.08 | 6.94% |
| CTS | CTS Corporation | 0.36% | $0.16 | 8.09% |
| GVA | Granite Construction Incorporated | 0.36% | $0.43 | 12.45% |
| LCORX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| LCRIX | Leuthold Core Investment Fund Class Institutional | 0.36% | $0.08 | 4.98% |
| UHAL | U-Haul Holding Company | 0.36% | $0.18 | 17.87% |
| BOX | Box, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.10 | 6.61% |
| HCC | Warrior Met Coal, Inc. | 0.35% | $0.31 | 47.04% |
| MCK | McKesson Corporation | 0.35% | $2.91 | 8.98% |
| CSWI | CSW Industrials, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.02 | 11.93% |
| MOG-A | Moog Inc. | 0.34% | $0.85 | 11.59% |
| SRBK | SR Bancorp, Inc. Common stock | 0.34% | $0.05 | 9.61% |
| VHAQ-UN | Viveon Health Acquisition Corp. | 0.34% | $0.04 | 17.38% |
| WWD | Woodward, Inc. | 0.34% | $1.05 | 14.70% |
| AGX | Argan, Inc. | 0.33% | $1.08 | 12.72% |
| PJT | PJT Partners Inc. | 0.33% | $0.56 | 13.70% |
| REGN | Regeneron Pharmaceuticals, Inc. | 0.33% | $2.59 | 6.06% |
| LPLA | LPL Financial Holdings Inc. | 0.32% | $1.16 | 11.15% |
| META | Meta Platforms, Inc. | 0.31% | $2.04 | 8.98% |
| ESAB | ESAB Corporation | 0.30% | $0.34 | 8.52% |
| POWL | Powell Industries, Inc. | 0.30% | $1.05 | 7.31% |
| VC | Visteon Corporation | 0.30% | $0.29 | 2.59% |
| WST | West Pharmaceutical Services, Inc. | 0.30% | $0.83 | 12.34% |
| CASH | Pathward Financial, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.21 | 2.52% |
| NGS | Natural Gas Services Group, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.10 | 6.71% |
| PLUS | ePlus inc. | 0.29% | $0.25 | 5.41% |
| RVTY | Revvity, Inc. | 0.29% | $0.28 | 14.01% |
| TMO | Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 0.28% | $1.65 | 9.48% |
| MRVL | Marvell Technology, Inc. | 0.27% | $0.24 | 8.33% |
| VNT | Vontier Corporation | 0.27% | $0.10 | 3.64% |
| DBRG | DigitalBridge Group, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.04 | 9.84% |
| FOUR | Shift4 Payments, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.16 | 7.44% |
| GOOG | Alphabet Inc. | 0.26% | $0.82 | 8.01% |
| TPB | Turning Point Brands, Inc. | 0.26% | $0.29 | 10.22% |
| USB-PA | U.S. Bancorp PERP PFD SER A | 0.26% | $2.02 | 43.68% |