Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kyowa Kirin Co., Ltd. (4151.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - GeneralSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7,757.72 - $14,570.18$13,654.39
Multi-Stage$2,345.85 - $2,564.70$2,453.27
Blended Fair Value$8,053.83
Current Price$2,465.50
Upside226.66%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.33%8.49%58.9255.3648.1746.1145.0741.3630.8026.0926.0926.09
YoY Growth--6.44%14.92%4.48%2.31%8.96%34.31%18.02%0.01%-0.01%-0.01%
Dividend Yield--2.71%2.10%1.67%1.62%1.36%1.71%1.28%1.12%1.48%1.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)38,413.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30,481.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,932.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7,682.604,801.632,880.98
Cash Retained (M)7,932.007,932.007,932.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-7,682.60-4,801.63-2,880.98
(=) Excess Retained (M)249.403,130.385,051.03
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)524.32524.32524.32
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.485.979.63
LTM Dividend per Share58.1358.1358.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.485.979.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend58.6164.1167.77
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7,757.72$13,654.39$14,570.18
Upside / Downside214.65%453.82%490.96%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)38,413.0040,909.8543,568.9846,400.9749,417.0352,629.1454,208.01
Payout Ratio79.35%81.48%83.61%85.74%87.87%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30,481.0033,333.5836,428.2239,784.3343,422.8247,366.2350,142.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)31,064.4431,358.8931,653.34
Year 2 PV (M)31,637.4332,240.0332,848.32
Year 3 PV (M)32,200.0733,124.4234,066.29
Year 4 PV (M)32,752.4934,012.0635,307.61
Year 5 PV (M)33,294.8234,902.9736,572.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,069,020.041,120,654.111,174,264.33
Equity Value (M)1,229,969.291,286,292.481,344,712.57
Shares Outstanding (M)524.32524.32524.32
Fair Value$2,345.85$2,453.27$2,564.70
Upside / Downside-4.85%-0.50%4.02%

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