Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arriyadh Development Co. (4150.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - DiversifiedSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$16.67 - $29.84$22.20
Multi-Stage$29.58 - $32.50$31.01
Blended Fair Value$26.60
Current Price$35.30
Upside-24.63%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.05%-1.24%0.660.450.661.450.890.900.880.871.190.67
YoY Growth--48.15%-32.97%-54.25%63.94%-1.74%2.61%0.49%-26.44%78.39%-10.85%
Dividend Yield--1.95%1.90%3.64%5.25%4.06%6.68%5.58%5.89%7.39%4.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)241.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)101.64
(=) Cash Retained (M)139.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)48.2930.1818.11
Cash Retained (M)139.82139.82139.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-48.29-30.18-18.11
(=) Excess Retained (M)91.53109.64121.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)198.78198.78198.78
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.460.550.61
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.971.061.12
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Fair Value$16.67$22.20$29.84
Upside / Downside-52.78%-37.11%-15.46%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)241.46245.07248.74252.46256.23260.06267.86
Payout Ratio42.09%51.67%61.26%70.84%80.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)101.64126.64152.37178.83206.06234.06247.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate0.50%1.50%2.50%
Year 1 PV (M)117.90119.07120.25
Year 2 PV (M)132.06134.70137.37
Year 3 PV (M)144.30148.66153.09
Year 4 PV (M)154.80161.05167.49
Year 5 PV (M)163.70172.00180.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,166.095,428.295,701.02
Equity Value (M)5,878.856,163.786,459.88
Shares Outstanding (M)198.78198.78198.78
Fair Value$29.58$31.01$32.50
Upside / Downside-16.22%-12.16%-7.94%

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