Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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United Orthopedic Corporation (4129.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$222.78 - $1,125.15$461.12
Multi-Stage$126.75 - $138.38$132.46
Blended Fair Value$296.79
Current Price$123.00
Upside141.29%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS19.12%0.00%3.942.050.000.910.711.641.031.021.170.00
YoY Growth--92.35%0.00%-100.00%28.38%-57.03%60.26%0.85%-13.28%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.55%2.07%0.00%3.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)553.57
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)385.87
(=) Cash Retained (M)167.71
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)110.7169.2041.52
Cash Retained (M)167.71167.71167.71
(-) Cash Required (M)-110.71-69.20-41.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)56.9998.51126.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)97.8597.8597.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.581.011.29
LTM Dividend per Share3.943.943.94
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.581.011.29
(=) Adjusted Dividend4.534.955.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$222.78$461.12$1,125.15
Upside / Downside81.13%274.90%814.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)553.57589.55627.88668.69712.15758.44781.19
Payout Ratio69.70%73.76%77.82%81.88%85.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)385.87434.88488.63547.53612.03682.60722.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)400.21404.00407.79
Year 2 PV (M)413.82421.70429.66
Year 3 PV (M)426.73438.98451.47
Year 4 PV (M)438.97455.85473.22
Year 5 PV (M)450.55472.31494.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,271.8810,768.0111,283.14
Equity Value (M)12,402.1612,960.8613,540.18
Shares Outstanding (M)97.8597.8597.85
Fair Value$126.75$132.46$138.38
Upside / Downside3.05%7.69%12.51%

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