Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Middle East Healthcare Company (4009.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$175.26 - $802.14$398.87
Multi-Stage$90.12 - $98.65$94.31
Blended Fair Value$246.59
Current Price$57.20
Upside331.10%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.002.002.002.001.80
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%11.11%80.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%6.26%3.48%2.70%2.48%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)371.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)46.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)325.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)74.2546.4027.84
Cash Retained (M)325.21325.21325.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-74.25-46.40-27.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)250.97278.81297.37
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)92.0492.0492.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.733.033.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.500.500.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.733.033.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.233.533.73
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$175.26$398.87$802.14
Upside / Downside206.40%597.32%1,302.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)371.23395.36421.06448.43477.58508.62523.88
Payout Ratio12.40%27.92%43.44%58.96%74.48%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)46.02110.37182.90264.39355.70457.76484.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.44%7.44%7.44%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)101.76102.73103.69
Year 2 PV (M)155.48158.44161.43
Year 3 PV (M)207.22213.17219.23
Year 4 PV (M)257.03266.92277.09
Year 5 PV (M)304.98319.71335.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,268.107,619.167,983.65
Equity Value (M)8,294.588,680.129,080.09
Shares Outstanding (M)92.0492.0492.04
Fair Value$90.12$94.31$98.65
Upside / Downside57.55%64.87%72.47%

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