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Al Hammadi Holding Company (4007.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Care FacilitiesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$24.97 - $46.85$33.88
Multi-Stage$38.05 - $41.68$39.83
Blended Fair Value$36.85
Current Price$34.42
Upside7.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%1.401.041.240.820.000.000.560.000.560.47
YoY Growth--34.52%-16.04%51.17%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%20.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.40%1.80%2.55%2.42%0.00%0.00%3.00%0.00%1.84%1.69%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)223.77
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.78
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.1133.1919.92
Cash Retained (M)41.7841.7841.78
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.11-33.19-19.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)-11.338.5921.86
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)160.26160.26160.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.050.14
LTM Dividend per Share1.401.401.40
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.070.050.14
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.331.451.53
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Fair Value$24.97$33.88$46.85
Upside / Downside-27.44%-1.58%36.10%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.55272.04278.70285.51292.50299.65308.64
Payout Ratio84.27%85.41%86.56%87.71%88.85%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)223.77232.36241.24250.42259.90269.69285.50

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.83%6.83%6.83%
Growth Rate1.45%2.45%3.45%
Year 1 PV (M)215.38217.50219.63
Year 2 PV (M)207.27211.38215.52
Year 3 PV (M)199.43205.39211.46
Year 4 PV (M)191.85199.53207.44
Year 5 PV (M)184.54193.81203.46
PV of Terminal Value (M)5,099.485,355.835,622.38
Equity Value (M)6,097.956,383.436,679.88
Shares Outstanding (M)160.26160.26160.26
Fair Value$38.05$39.83$41.68
Upside / Downside10.55%15.72%21.10%

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