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Definitive Analysis

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Hansoh Pharmaceutical Group Company Limited (3692.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$43.24 - $152.56$71.59
Multi-Stage$59.55 - $65.44$62.44
Blended Fair Value$67.02
Current Price$27.14
Upside146.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.38%0.00%0.310.110.120.060.700.250.000.070.400.00
YoY Growth--184.99%-8.44%86.99%-90.93%180.00%0.00%-100.00%-82.94%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.91%0.76%0.91%0.41%2.22%1.08%0.00%0.42%2.27%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,495.41
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)2,510.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)6,984.98
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,899.081,186.93712.16
Cash Retained (M)6,984.986,984.986,984.98
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,899.08-1,186.93-712.16
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,085.905,798.056,272.82
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)5,988.045,988.045,988.04
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.850.971.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.420.420.42
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.850.971.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.271.391.47
WACC / Discount Rate5.38%5.38%5.38%
Growth Rate2.38%3.38%4.38%
Fair Value$43.24$71.59$152.56
Upside / Downside59.32%163.78%462.11%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,495.419,816.1210,147.6710,490.4110,844.7311,211.0211,547.35
Payout Ratio26.44%39.15%51.86%64.58%77.29%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)2,510.433,843.085,262.896,774.228,381.6410,089.9210,681.30

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.38%5.38%5.38%
Growth Rate2.38%3.38%4.38%
Year 1 PV (M)3,611.563,646.843,682.11
Year 2 PV (M)4,647.884,739.134,831.26
Year 3 PV (M)5,622.205,788.565,958.17
Year 4 PV (M)6,537.206,796.387,063.19
Year 5 PV (M)7,395.477,763.788,146.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)328,789.47345,163.94362,184.39
Equity Value (M)356,603.78373,898.62391,865.75
Shares Outstanding (M)5,988.045,988.045,988.04
Fair Value$59.55$62.44$65.44
Upside / Downside119.43%130.07%141.13%

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