Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Industry

Sector

CAC Nantong Chemical Co Ltd (301665.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.18 - $11.88$9.97
Multi-Stage$14.07 - $15.44$14.74
Blended Fair Value$12.36
Current Price$29.19
Upside-57.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.170.900.110.820.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---7.80%-80.89%686.86%-86.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.43%2.25%0.29%2.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)466.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.3658.3535.01
Cash Retained (M)251.22251.22251.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.36-58.35-35.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)157.86192.87216.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.41419.41419.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.460.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.460.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$8.18$9.97$11.88
Upside / Downside-71.98%-65.84%-59.32%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)466.80462.13457.51452.94448.41443.92457.24
Payout Ratio46.18%54.95%63.71%72.47%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.58253.92291.48328.26364.27399.53422.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.67%8.67%8.67%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)231.31233.67236.03
Year 2 PV (M)241.87246.83251.84
Year 3 PV (M)248.12255.79263.62
Year 4 PV (M)250.82261.21271.93
Year 5 PV (M)250.59263.64277.23
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,679.094,922.745,176.43
Equity Value (M)5,901.796,183.886,477.08
Shares Outstanding (M)419.41419.41419.41
Fair Value$14.07$14.74$15.44
Upside / Downside-51.79%-49.49%-47.09%

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