Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Teemsun Technology Co Ltd (301571.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.02 - $10.00$8.48
Multi-Stage$10.64 - $11.70$11.16
Blended Fair Value$9.82
Current Price$45.90
Upside-78.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.090.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.22%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)191.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)24.79
(=) Cash Retained (M)166.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.3123.9414.37
Cash Retained (M)166.75166.75166.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.31-23.94-14.37
(=) Excess Retained (M)128.44142.81152.39
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)184.09184.09184.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.700.780.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.700.780.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.830.910.96
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$7.02$8.48$10.00
Upside / Downside-84.71%-81.52%-78.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)191.55189.63187.74185.86184.00182.16187.62
Payout Ratio12.94%28.36%43.77%59.18%74.59%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)24.7953.7782.16109.99137.24163.94173.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.62%9.62%9.62%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)48.5549.0549.54
Year 2 PV (M)67.0068.3769.76
Year 3 PV (M)80.9883.4986.04
Year 4 PV (M)91.2595.0398.93
Year 5 PV (M)98.42103.55108.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,572.751,654.651,739.92
Equity Value (M)1,958.952,054.132,153.08
Shares Outstanding (M)184.09184.09184.09
Fair Value$10.64$11.16$11.70
Upside / Downside-76.82%-75.69%-74.52%

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