Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shenzhen Jdd Tech New Material Co Ltd (301538.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$56.38 - $121.23$80.43
Multi-Stage$41.25 - $45.04$43.11
Blended Fair Value$61.77
Current Price$93.80
Upside-34.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS30.58%0.00%0.590.010.010.000.160.160.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--7,066.74%50.70%384.16%-99.30%3.83%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.12%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)197.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.59
(=) Cash Retained (M)152.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)39.5424.7114.83
Cash Retained (M)152.12152.12152.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-39.54-24.71-14.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)112.57127.40137.29
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)66.8966.8966.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.681.902.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.680.680.68
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.681.902.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.362.592.73
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$56.38$80.43$121.23
Upside / Downside-39.89%-14.25%29.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)197.71210.56224.24238.82254.34270.88279.00
Payout Ratio23.06%36.45%49.84%63.22%76.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.5976.74111.75150.99194.86243.79258.08

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.92%9.92%9.92%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)69.1669.8270.47
Year 2 PV (M)90.7692.4994.23
Year 3 PV (M)110.50113.68116.91
Year 4 PV (M)128.51133.46138.54
Year 5 PV (M)144.90151.89159.16
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,215.162,322.152,433.24
Equity Value (M)2,758.992,883.483,012.55
Shares Outstanding (M)66.8966.8966.89
Fair Value$41.25$43.11$45.04
Upside / Downside-56.03%-54.04%-51.98%

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