Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Voneseals Technology (Shanghai) Inc. (301161.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ChemicalsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.92 - $7.31$6.06
Multi-Stage$9.40 - $10.32$9.85
Blended Fair Value$7.96
Current Price$38.03
Upside-79.07%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS-0.33%0.00%0.440.170.040.060.200.440.090.010.000.00
YoY Growth--154.63%343.52%-33.24%-70.34%-56.01%393.06%1,549.45%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.99%0.97%0.16%0.21%0.70%1.58%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)72.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.35
(=) Cash Retained (M)33.24
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)14.529.075.44
Cash Retained (M)33.2433.2433.24
(-) Cash Required (M)-14.52-9.07-5.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)18.7224.1727.80
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)118.84118.84118.84
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.23
LTM Dividend per Share0.330.330.33
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.200.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.490.530.56
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$4.92$6.06$7.31
Upside / Downside-87.05%-84.05%-80.77%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)72.5971.8671.1470.4369.7369.0371.10
Payout Ratio54.21%61.36%68.52%75.68%82.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.3544.1048.7553.3057.7662.1365.77

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.73%7.73%7.73%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.5240.9341.35
Year 2 PV (M)41.1642.0142.86
Year 3 PV (M)41.3642.6443.94
Year 4 PV (M)41.1942.8944.65
Year 5 PV (M)40.7042.8245.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)911.95959.431,008.88
Equity Value (M)1,116.881,170.731,226.72
Shares Outstanding (M)118.84118.84118.84
Fair Value$9.40$9.85$10.32
Upside / Downside-75.29%-74.10%-72.86%

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