Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ShenZhen QiangRui Precision Technology Co., Ltd. (301128.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$34.57 - $74.22$49.29
Multi-Stage$26.10 - $28.45$27.25
Blended Fair Value$38.27
Current Price$86.96
Upside-55.99%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS169.64%0.00%0.710.500.500.000.000.000.070.210.000.00
YoY Growth--41.72%0.08%0.00%0.00%-100.00%-93.06%-65.35%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.30%1.56%2.39%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)134.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)62.91
(=) Cash Retained (M)71.19
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.8216.7610.06
Cash Retained (M)71.1971.1971.19
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.82-16.76-10.06
(=) Excess Retained (M)44.3754.4361.13
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)73.8973.8973.89
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.600.740.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.600.740.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.451.591.68
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$34.57$49.29$74.22
Upside / Downside-60.25%-43.32%-14.65%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)134.11142.82152.11161.99172.52183.74189.25
Payout Ratio46.91%55.53%64.15%72.77%81.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)62.9179.3197.57117.88140.40165.36175.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.93%9.93%9.93%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)71.4772.1572.82
Year 2 PV (M)79.2380.7482.26
Year 3 PV (M)86.2588.7391.25
Year 4 PV (M)92.5896.1499.80
Year 5 PV (M)98.25103.00107.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,500.491,572.971,648.21
Equity Value (M)1,928.272,013.712,102.27
Shares Outstanding (M)73.8973.8973.89
Fair Value$26.10$27.25$28.45
Upside / Downside-69.99%-68.66%-67.28%

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