Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Luoyang Xinqianglian Slewing Bearing Co., Ltd. (300850.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$70.62 - $413.69$130.44
Multi-Stage$40.92 - $44.78$42.82
Blended Fair Value$86.63
Current Price$43.48
Upside99.24%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS70.34%0.00%0.270.210.190.140.020.020.020.010.020.00
YoY Growth--25.30%14.99%31.72%750.95%-11.21%18.90%51.39%-35.70%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.02%0.85%0.41%0.21%0.03%0.19%0.16%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)765.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)73.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)691.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)153.0695.6657.40
Cash Retained (M)691.37691.37691.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-153.06-95.66-57.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)538.31595.70633.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)367.91367.91367.91
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.461.621.72
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.461.621.72
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.661.821.92
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$70.62$130.44$413.69
Upside / Downside62.42%200.01%851.45%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)765.31815.05868.03924.45984.541,048.541,080.00
Payout Ratio9.66%25.73%41.80%57.86%73.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)73.94209.71362.81534.93727.90943.69999.00

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.99%7.99%7.99%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)192.38194.20196.02
Year 2 PV (M)305.32311.13317.00
Year 3 PV (M)412.96424.81436.89
Year 4 PV (M)515.48535.30555.69
Year 5 PV (M)613.06642.67673.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,016.1613,644.8414,297.59
Equity Value (M)15,055.3515,752.9616,476.61
Shares Outstanding (M)367.91367.91367.91
Fair Value$40.92$42.82$44.78
Upside / Downside-5.88%-1.52%3.00%

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