Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Kanghua Biological Products Co., Ltd. (300841.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: BiotechnologySector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$35.27 - $103.37$55.55
Multi-Stage$24.88 - $27.11$25.98
Blended Fair Value$40.76
Current Price$76.45
Upside-46.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS246.94%0.00%2.060.551.050.690.000.000.050.160.000.00
YoY Growth--273.88%-47.64%52.02%38,896.21%-56.69%-91.03%-72.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.36%0.88%1.14%0.59%0.00%0.01%0.10%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.86
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)140.13
(=) Cash Retained (M)41.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.3722.7313.64
Cash Retained (M)41.7341.7341.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.37-22.73-13.64
(=) Excess Retained (M)5.3619.0028.09
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)130.14130.14130.14
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.150.22
LTM Dividend per Share1.081.081.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.150.22
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.221.29
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$35.27$55.55$103.37
Upside / Downside-53.87%-27.34%35.21%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.86193.68206.27219.68233.96249.16256.64
Payout Ratio77.05%79.64%82.23%84.82%87.41%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)140.13154.25169.62186.33204.50224.25237.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.84%8.84%8.84%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)140.39141.72143.05
Year 2 PV (M)140.50143.17145.88
Year 3 PV (M)140.47144.50148.61
Year 4 PV (M)140.31145.71151.26
Year 5 PV (M)140.03146.79153.81
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,536.432,658.942,786.14
Equity Value (M)3,238.123,380.833,528.74
Shares Outstanding (M)130.14130.14130.14
Fair Value$24.88$25.98$27.11
Upside / Downside-67.45%-66.02%-64.53%

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