Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangzhou Haoyang Electronic Co.,Ltd. (300833.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.23 - $46.17$32.21
Multi-Stage$34.45 - $37.73$36.06
Blended Fair Value$34.13
Current Price$42.99
Upside-20.60%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS448.87%0.00%1.601.450.530.270.000.000.000.000.090.07
YoY Growth--10.54%171.39%99.85%0.00%-100.00%-91.66%-12.28%-95.31%29.93%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.10%2.26%0.75%0.61%0.00%0.00%0.01%0.01%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)177.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)164.45
(=) Cash Retained (M)13.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.5222.2013.32
Cash Retained (M)13.1313.1313.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.52-22.20-13.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)-22.38-9.07-0.19
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)126.50126.50126.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.070.00
LTM Dividend per Share1.301.301.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.18-0.070.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.121.231.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Fair Value$23.23$32.21$46.17
Upside / Downside-45.95%-25.07%7.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)177.59182.45187.45192.58197.86203.28209.37
Payout Ratio92.60%92.08%91.56%91.04%90.52%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)164.45168.01171.63175.33179.10182.95193.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate1.74%2.74%3.74%
Year 1 PV (M)155.99157.52159.05
Year 2 PV (M)147.95150.88153.83
Year 3 PV (M)140.33144.51148.77
Year 4 PV (M)133.09138.40143.87
Year 5 PV (M)126.22132.55139.13
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,653.953,837.094,027.50
Equity Value (M)4,357.534,560.954,772.15
Shares Outstanding (M)126.50126.50126.50
Fair Value$34.45$36.06$37.73
Upside / Downside-19.87%-16.13%-12.25%

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