Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anfu CE LINK Limited (300787.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Computer HardwareSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.94 - $17.21$11.36
Multi-Stage$6.04 - $6.58$6.31
Blended Fair Value$8.83
Current Price$13.95
Upside-36.70%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS107.54%31.63%0.270.590.350.190.150.010.140.070.000.02
YoY Growth---55.27%70.76%83.18%23.41%2,130.12%-95.24%98.81%2,035.53%-84.07%26.03%
Dividend Yield--2.28%6.20%2.26%1.62%1.15%0.05%0.66%0.33%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)113.59
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)63.94
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.64
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.7214.208.52
Cash Retained (M)49.6449.6449.64
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.72-14.20-8.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.9335.4541.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)275.86275.86275.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.100.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.330.360.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$7.94$11.36$17.21
Upside / Downside-43.11%-18.60%23.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)113.59120.97128.83137.21146.13155.62160.29
Payout Ratio56.29%63.04%69.78%76.52%83.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)63.9476.2589.90104.99121.66140.06148.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.88%9.88%9.88%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)68.7569.4070.05
Year 2 PV (M)73.0774.4675.86
Year 3 PV (M)76.9379.1481.39
Year 4 PV (M)80.3783.4686.64
Year 5 PV (M)83.4287.4591.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,283.691,345.691,410.06
Equity Value (M)1,666.221,739.591,815.64
Shares Outstanding (M)275.86275.86275.86
Fair Value$6.04$6.31$6.58
Upside / Downside-56.70%-54.80%-52.82%

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