Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shandong Shuangyi Technology Co., Ltd. (300690.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Metal FabricationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.71 - $13.11$10.79
Multi-Stage$11.22 - $12.30$11.75
Blended Fair Value$11.27
Current Price$38.88
Upside-71.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-6.68%7.35%0.210.150.300.670.470.300.450.300.220.11
YoY Growth--38.74%-49.36%-54.75%43.13%55.53%-33.53%51.10%32.84%99.84%7.69%
Dividend Yield--0.98%0.67%1.75%3.36%1.62%1.98%2.54%1.34%1.17%0.58%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)166.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)35.33
(=) Cash Retained (M)130.99
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)33.2620.7912.47
Cash Retained (M)130.99130.99130.99
(-) Cash Required (M)-33.26-20.79-12.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)97.73110.20118.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)166.41166.41166.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Fair Value$8.71$10.79$13.11
Upside / Downside-77.60%-72.25%-66.28%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)166.32169.08171.89174.74177.64180.59186.00
Payout Ratio21.24%34.99%48.75%62.50%76.25%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)35.3359.1783.79109.21135.45162.53172.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.90%9.90%9.90%
Growth Rate0.66%1.66%2.66%
Year 1 PV (M)53.3153.8454.37
Year 2 PV (M)68.0269.3770.75
Year 3 PV (M)79.8782.2884.73
Year 4 PV (M)89.2592.8596.56
Year 5 PV (M)96.49101.38106.47
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,480.691,555.711,633.75
Equity Value (M)1,867.631,955.442,046.62
Shares Outstanding (M)166.41166.41166.41
Fair Value$11.22$11.75$12.30
Upside / Downside-71.13%-69.78%-68.37%

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