Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Wuxi Longsheng Technology Co.,Ltd (300680.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$39.87 - $202.33$71.46
Multi-Stage$23.95 - $26.19$25.05
Blended Fair Value$48.25
Current Price$62.96
Upside-23.36%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.21%40.33%0.350.100.090.120.030.030.080.010.060.06
YoY Growth--250.18%14.45%-25.19%263.10%0.00%-60.46%664.65%-80.92%-7.32%409.04%
Dividend Yield--0.89%0.60%0.41%0.54%0.15%0.29%1.06%0.09%1.14%1.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)281.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.15
(=) Cash Retained (M)210.89
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)56.2135.1321.08
Cash Retained (M)210.89210.89210.89
(-) Cash Required (M)-56.21-35.13-21.08
(=) Excess Retained (M)154.68175.76189.81
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)228.39228.39228.39
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.680.770.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.981.081.14
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$39.87$71.46$202.33
Upside / Downside-36.67%13.49%221.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)281.03299.30318.76339.47361.54385.04396.59
Payout Ratio24.96%37.97%50.98%63.98%76.99%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.15113.64162.49217.21278.36346.54366.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.10%8.10%8.10%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)104.13105.12106.11
Year 2 PV (M)136.44139.04141.66
Year 3 PV (M)167.13171.93176.82
Year 4 PV (M)196.26203.81211.57
Year 5 PV (M)223.89234.71245.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,643.054,867.315,100.16
Equity Value (M)5,470.915,721.915,982.25
Shares Outstanding (M)228.39228.39228.39
Fair Value$23.95$25.05$26.19
Upside / Downside-61.95%-60.21%-58.40%

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