Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ticker

Industry

Sector

SG Micro Corp (300661.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$21.04 - $45.75$30.13
Multi-Stage$15.20 - $16.60$15.89
Blended Fair Value$23.01
Current Price$83.29
Upside-72.37%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS11.08%2.72%0.090.210.230.150.100.050.060.000.090.08
YoY Growth---56.35%-9.17%51.74%51.03%86.15%-8.55%146,670.75%-99.95%12.37%11.24%
Dividend Yield--0.14%0.32%0.19%0.09%0.13%0.09%0.36%0.00%1.51%1.35%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)558.58
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)91.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)467.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)111.7269.8241.89
Cash Retained (M)467.01467.01467.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-111.72-69.82-41.89
(=) Excess Retained (M)355.29397.18425.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)513.25513.25513.25
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.83
LTM Dividend per Share0.180.180.18
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.690.770.83
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.870.951.01
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$21.04$30.13$45.75
Upside / Downside-74.74%-63.82%-45.08%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)558.58594.89633.56674.74718.60765.30788.26
Payout Ratio16.39%31.12%45.84%60.56%75.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)91.58185.10290.40408.61540.95688.77729.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.87%9.87%9.87%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)166.90168.48170.06
Year 2 PV (M)236.09240.59245.13
Year 3 PV (M)299.52308.12316.88
Year 4 PV (M)357.54371.29385.43
Year 5 PV (M)410.47430.29450.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,328.946,634.646,952.02
Equity Value (M)7,799.468,153.408,520.40
Shares Outstanding (M)513.25513.25513.25
Fair Value$15.20$15.89$16.60
Upside / Downside-81.75%-80.93%-80.07%

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