Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Tecnon Electronics Co., Ltd. (300650.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$5.06 - $11.37$7.33
Multi-Stage$3.70 - $4.04$3.86
Blended Fair Value$5.60
Current Price$21.74
Upside-74.24%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.01%26.77%0.140.140.220.080.100.090.090.010.010.00
YoY Growth---1.36%-36.95%193.60%-26.11%19.41%-3.97%1,028.14%8.20%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--1.02%1.29%1.75%0.48%0.87%1.03%0.92%0.05%0.11%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)54.60
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)36.12
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)10.926.824.09
Cash Retained (M)36.1236.1236.12
(-) Cash Required (M)-10.92-6.82-4.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)25.2029.2932.02
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)216.27216.27216.27
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.090.090.09
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$5.06$7.33$11.37
Upside / Downside-76.71%-66.26%-47.69%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)54.6058.1561.9365.9570.2474.8177.05
Payout Ratio33.85%45.08%56.31%67.54%78.77%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.4826.2134.8744.5555.3367.3271.27

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.71%9.71%9.71%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)23.6723.9024.12
Year 2 PV (M)28.4328.9729.52
Year 3 PV (M)32.7933.7434.70
Year 4 PV (M)36.7838.1939.65
Year 5 PV (M)40.4142.3644.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)637.80668.60700.59
Equity Value (M)799.89835.77872.97
Shares Outstanding (M)216.27216.27216.27
Fair Value$3.70$3.86$4.04
Upside / Downside-82.99%-82.22%-81.43%

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