Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Huace Navigation Technology Ltd (300627.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$209.35 - $246.65$231.15
Multi-Stage$167.95 - $184.31$175.97
Blended Fair Value$203.56
Current Price$35.43
Upside474.54%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS33.02%59.91%0.370.260.210.160.130.090.060.000.030.01
YoY Growth--39.68%27.39%31.98%18.37%49.84%48.03%5,383.10%-96.64%141.51%298.75%
Dividend Yield--1.24%1.32%1.00%0.84%1.05%1.06%0.77%0.01%0.45%0.40%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)686.32
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)287.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)398.74
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)137.2685.7951.47
Cash Retained (M)398.74398.74398.74
(-) Cash Required (M)-137.26-85.79-51.47
(=) Excess Retained (M)261.48312.95347.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)553.38553.38553.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.470.570.63
LTM Dividend per Share0.520.520.52
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.470.570.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.991.091.15
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$209.35$231.15$246.65
Upside / Downside490.88%552.40%596.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)686.32730.93778.44829.04882.92940.31968.52
Payout Ratio41.90%51.52%61.14%70.76%80.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)287.57376.58475.94586.63709.69846.28895.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)376.87380.44384.02
Year 2 PV (M)476.68485.76494.92
Year 3 PV (M)587.99604.87622.07
Year 4 PV (M)711.90739.27767.43
Year 5 PV (M)849.56890.60933.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)89,935.5894,279.5098,789.68
Equity Value (M)92,938.5897,380.44101,991.32
Shares Outstanding (M)553.38553.38553.38
Fair Value$167.95$175.97$184.31
Upside / Downside374.02%396.68%420.20%

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