Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Autek China Inc. (300595.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - Instruments & SuppliesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$13.84 - $40.37$21.77
Multi-Stage$9.42 - $10.28$9.84
Blended Fair Value$15.81
Current Price$17.15
Upside-7.84%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS44.33%26.77%0.230.140.140.140.050.040.030.030.080.01
YoY Growth--60.42%1.80%-0.03%204.22%26.11%29.54%5.30%-67.69%808.02%-57.24%
Dividend Yield--1.43%0.76%0.42%0.38%0.07%0.14%0.18%0.30%1.00%0.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)491.70
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)205.49
(=) Cash Retained (M)286.21
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)98.3461.4636.88
Cash Retained (M)286.21286.21286.21
(-) Cash Required (M)-98.34-61.46-36.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)187.87224.75249.33
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)893.33893.33893.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
LTM Dividend per Share0.230.230.23
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.210.250.28
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$13.84$21.77$40.37
Upside / Downside-19.28%26.95%135.37%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)491.70523.66557.70593.95632.56673.67693.88
Payout Ratio41.79%51.43%61.08%70.72%80.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)205.49269.34340.62420.02508.31606.31641.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.86%8.86%8.86%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)245.10247.43249.75
Year 2 PV (M)282.08287.45292.87
Year 3 PV (M)316.54325.62334.88
Year 4 PV (M)348.61362.01375.80
Year 5 PV (M)378.40396.67415.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,840.537,170.937,513.97
Equity Value (M)8,411.258,790.119,182.93
Shares Outstanding (M)893.33893.33893.33
Fair Value$9.42$9.84$10.28
Upside / Downside-45.10%-42.63%-40.06%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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