Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hunan Sundy Science and Technology Co., Ltd. (300515.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$151.08 - $178.00$166.81
Multi-Stage$121.03 - $132.83$126.82
Blended Fair Value$146.81
Current Price$20.13
Upside629.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.92%8.03%0.150.190.170.150.130.100.070.100.000.07
YoY Growth---21.28%10.63%9.98%22.37%24.91%34.65%-24.99%2,421.69%-94.10%-1.58%
Dividend Yield--0.89%1.90%1.05%1.45%1.33%1.13%0.68%0.91%0.02%1.08%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)180.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)60.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)119.73
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.0722.5413.52
Cash Retained (M)119.73119.73119.73
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.07-22.54-13.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)83.6697.19106.20
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)201.48201.48201.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.420.480.53
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.720.780.83
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$151.08$166.81$178.00
Upside / Downside650.52%728.66%784.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)180.33192.05204.53217.82231.98247.06254.47
Payout Ratio33.61%44.88%56.16%67.44%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)60.6086.20114.87146.91182.62222.36235.39

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate-1.02%-1.02%-1.02%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)86.2787.0887.90
Year 2 PV (M)115.05117.24119.45
Year 3 PV (M)147.25151.47155.78
Year 4 PV (M)183.19190.23197.48
Year 5 PV (M)223.22234.00245.19
PV of Terminal Value (M)23,630.1324,771.4725,956.50
Equity Value (M)24,385.0925,551.5026,762.30
Shares Outstanding (M)201.48201.48201.48
Fair Value$121.03$126.82$132.83
Upside / Downside501.25%530.01%559.86%

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