Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Aerospace Intelligent Manufacturing Technology Co., Ltd. (300446.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$181.00 - $213.25$199.84
Multi-Stage$124.55 - $136.69$130.51
Blended Fair Value$165.18
Current Price$16.81
Upside882.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS19.12%12.87%0.110.050.070.000.010.050.060.040.040.03
YoY Growth--132.67%-28.29%3,213.15%-75.12%-82.57%-21.39%33.33%0.00%33.48%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.54%0.28%0.57%0.01%0.11%0.39%0.41%0.40%0.25%0.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)906.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)253.85
(=) Cash Retained (M)652.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)181.31113.3267.99
Cash Retained (M)652.70652.70652.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-181.31-113.32-67.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)471.39539.38584.71
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)845.44845.44845.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.560.640.69
LTM Dividend per Share0.300.300.30
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.560.640.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.860.940.99
WACC / Discount Rate2.05%2.05%2.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$181.00$199.84$213.25
Upside / Downside976.74%1,088.84%1,168.58%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)906.55965.471,028.231,095.061,166.241,242.051,279.31
Payout Ratio28.00%40.40%52.80%65.20%77.60%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)253.85390.06542.91713.99905.011,117.841,183.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.05%2.05%2.05%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)378.64382.23385.81
Year 2 PV (M)511.57521.32531.15
Year 3 PV (M)653.06671.81690.91
Year 4 PV (M)803.53834.43866.22
Year 5 PV (M)963.431,009.961,058.28
PV of Terminal Value (M)101,989.39106,915.51112,030.17
Equity Value (M)105,299.61110,335.25115,562.54
Shares Outstanding (M)845.44845.44845.44
Fair Value$124.55$130.51$136.69
Upside / Downside640.92%676.36%713.14%

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