Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Northern Region Cement Company (3004.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Construction MaterialsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.45 - $3.62$3.01
Multi-Stage$6.53 - $7.19$6.85
Blended Fair Value$4.93
Current Price$8.23
Upside-40.09%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-12.89%0.500.250.500.500.250.000.000.000.951.50
YoY Growth--100.00%-50.00%0.00%100.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-100.00%-36.67%-24.56%
Dividend Yield--5.53%2.49%4.48%3.44%1.92%0.00%0.03%0.00%8.95%12.16%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)56.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)11.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)11.277.044.22
Cash Retained (M)11.3311.3311.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-11.27-7.04-4.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.064.297.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)180.00180.00180.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
LTM Dividend per Share0.250.250.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.020.04
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.250.270.29
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.56%-2.56%-1.56%
Fair Value$2.45$3.01$3.62
Upside / Downside-70.29%-63.47%-56.03%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)56.3354.8953.4952.1250.7849.4950.97
Payout Ratio79.89%81.91%83.93%85.95%87.98%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.0044.9644.8944.8044.6844.5447.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.32%6.32%6.32%
Growth Rate-3.56%-2.56%-1.56%
Year 1 PV (M)41.8542.2942.72
Year 2 PV (M)38.9039.7240.53
Year 3 PV (M)36.1437.2838.44
Year 4 PV (M)33.5634.9736.43
Year 5 PV (M)31.1432.7934.51
PV of Terminal Value (M)994.041,046.661,101.48
Equity Value (M)1,175.641,233.701,294.10
Shares Outstanding (M)180.00180.00180.00
Fair Value$6.53$6.85$7.19
Upside / Downside-20.64%-16.72%-12.64%

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