Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hubei Forbon Technology Co.,Ltd. (300387.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.19 - $30.36$13.72
Multi-Stage$5.26 - $5.74$5.50
Blended Fair Value$9.61
Current Price$8.98
Upside6.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS5.10%34.75%0.060.120.050.050.050.050.050.060.050.03
YoY Growth---48.70%149.33%-0.31%-0.38%0.95%5.16%-19.73%24.84%49.91%874.25%
Dividend Yield--0.73%1.92%0.68%0.48%0.75%0.65%0.62%0.74%0.35%0.26%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)82.29
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)32.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)49.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.4610.296.17
Cash Retained (M)49.4949.4949.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.46-10.29-6.17
(=) Excess Retained (M)33.0339.2043.31
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)289.48289.48289.48
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.110.110.11
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.230.250.26
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8.19$13.72$30.36
Upside / Downside-8.85%52.77%238.12%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)82.2987.6393.3399.40105.86112.74116.12
Payout Ratio39.86%49.89%59.92%69.94%79.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)32.8043.7255.9269.5284.66101.46107.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.43%8.43%8.43%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)39.9440.3240.70
Year 2 PV (M)46.6747.5648.46
Year 3 PV (M)53.0154.5356.08
Year 4 PV (M)58.9761.2463.57
Year 5 PV (M)64.5767.6970.93
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,258.711,319.511,382.63
Equity Value (M)1,521.891,590.861,662.38
Shares Outstanding (M)289.48289.48289.48
Fair Value$5.26$5.50$5.74
Upside / Downside-41.45%-38.80%-36.05%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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