Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Hodgen Technology Co., Ltd. (300279.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$4.13 - $18.55$7.22
Multi-Stage$2.57 - $2.81$2.69
Blended Fair Value$4.95
Current Price$7.56
Upside-34.47%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-14.00%7.47%0.040.060.050.050.070.090.110.090.070.05
YoY Growth---33.85%18.37%0.73%-22.97%-22.60%-23.10%24.21%34.47%24.37%173.66%
Dividend Yield--0.65%1.20%0.92%0.73%1.43%1.51%1.64%0.70%0.49%0.47%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)11.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)53.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.988.114.87
Cash Retained (M)53.3053.3053.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.98-8.11-4.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.3345.1948.44
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)489.19489.19489.19
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.080.090.10
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.110.120.12
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Fair Value$4.13$7.22$18.55
Upside / Downside-45.43%-4.52%145.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.8869.0073.3978.0583.0088.2790.92
Payout Ratio17.85%32.28%46.71%61.14%75.57%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)11.5822.2734.2847.7262.7379.4584.10

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.06%8.06%8.06%
Growth Rate5.35%6.35%7.35%
Year 1 PV (M)20.4220.6120.81
Year 2 PV (M)28.8129.3529.91
Year 3 PV (M)36.7637.8238.89
Year 4 PV (M)44.3046.0047.76
Year 5 PV (M)51.4353.9256.50
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,075.961,128.001,182.04
Equity Value (M)1,257.671,315.701,375.91
Shares Outstanding (M)489.19489.19489.19
Fair Value$2.57$2.69$2.81
Upside / Downside-65.99%-64.42%-62.80%

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