Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Kaibao Pharmaceutical CO.,Ltd (300039.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.55 - $5.77$4.54
Multi-Stage$10.66 - $11.76$11.20
Blended Fair Value$7.87
Current Price$6.07
Upside29.67%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-0.34%-2.64%0.100.060.050.030.100.100.100.100.080.12
YoY Growth--66.73%20.00%65.27%-69.75%-1.71%-0.68%0.00%29.98%-35.64%-6.36%
Dividend Yield--1.58%0.96%0.67%0.35%2.48%1.90%1.94%1.58%1.00%1.56%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)345.55
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)104.62
(=) Cash Retained (M)240.93
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)69.1143.1925.92
Cash Retained (M)240.93240.93240.93
(-) Cash Required (M)-69.11-43.19-25.92
(=) Excess Retained (M)171.82197.74215.01
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.871,045.871,045.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Fair Value$3.55$4.54$5.77
Upside / Downside-41.54%-25.15%-4.98%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)345.55341.91338.32334.75331.23327.75337.58
Payout Ratio30.28%42.22%54.17%66.11%78.06%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)104.62144.36183.25221.31258.54294.97312.26

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate5.24%5.24%5.24%
Growth Rate-2.05%-1.05%-0.05%
Year 1 PV (M)135.78137.17138.56
Year 2 PV (M)162.12165.45168.81
Year 3 PV (M)184.15189.85195.67
Year 4 PV (M)202.35210.74219.39
Year 5 PV (M)217.14228.46240.24
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,246.9610,780.8311,336.73
Equity Value (M)11,148.5111,712.5012,299.39
Shares Outstanding (M)1,045.871,045.871,045.87
Fair Value$10.66$11.20$11.76
Upside / Downside75.61%84.49%93.74%

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