Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Wuxi Boton Technology Co., Ltd. (300031.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$7.12 - $13.88$9.80
Multi-Stage$6.51 - $7.13$6.81
Blended Fair Value$8.31
Current Price$24.61
Upside-66.25%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.18%0.07%0.110.060.170.370.290.050.140.110.000.00
YoY Growth--87.26%-65.43%-54.22%27.25%437.38%-62.46%29.89%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.39%0.81%1.83%1.79%0.29%0.91%0.77%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)181.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)20.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)160.47
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)36.2122.6313.58
Cash Retained (M)160.47160.47160.47
(-) Cash Required (M)-36.21-22.63-13.58
(=) Excess Retained (M)124.26137.84146.89
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.300.330.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.350.380.40
WACC / Discount Rate8.99%8.99%8.99%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Fair Value$7.12$9.80$13.88
Upside / Downside-71.06%-60.18%-43.61%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)181.03189.96199.32209.15219.46230.28237.19
Payout Ratio11.36%27.09%42.82%58.54%74.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)20.5651.4585.34122.44163.00207.25219.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.99%8.99%8.99%
Growth Rate3.93%4.93%5.93%
Year 1 PV (M)46.7647.2147.66
Year 2 PV (M)70.4871.8473.22
Year 3 PV (M)91.9094.5797.30
Year 4 PV (M)111.17115.51119.98
Year 5 PV (M)128.46134.76141.30
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,270.042,381.372,497.03
Equity Value (M)2,718.812,845.272,976.49
Shares Outstanding (M)417.68417.68417.68
Fair Value$6.51$6.81$7.13
Upside / Downside-73.55%-72.32%-71.04%

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