Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Medtronic plc (2M6.DE)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$57.81 - $110.16$78.89
Multi-Stage$72.59 - $79.39$75.93
Blended Fair Value$77.41
Current Price$93.42
Upside-17.14%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS4.40%10.38%2.792.852.812.632.422.252.091.941.851.66
YoY Growth---2.10%1.38%6.89%8.43%7.81%7.46%7.98%4.97%11.08%59.99%
Dividend Yield--3.07%3.53%3.20%2.83%1.85%2.38%2.02%2.16%2.18%1.89%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,764.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,614.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,150.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)952.80595.50357.30
Cash Retained (M)1,150.001,150.001,150.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-952.80-595.50-357.30
(=) Excess Retained (M)197.20554.50792.70
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,287.131,287.131,287.13
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.430.62
LTM Dividend per Share2.812.812.81
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.430.62
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.963.243.42
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.40%3.40%4.40%
Fair Value$57.81$78.89$110.16
Upside / Downside-38.12%-15.55%17.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,764.004,925.915,093.335,266.435,445.425,630.505,799.41
Payout Ratio75.86%78.69%81.52%84.34%87.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,614.003,876.134,151.904,441.934,746.895,067.455,364.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.40%3.40%4.40%
Year 1 PV (M)3,566.073,600.903,635.72
Year 2 PV (M)3,514.243,583.213,652.85
Year 3 PV (M)3,458.993,561.323,665.65
Year 4 PV (M)3,400.783,535.583,674.35
Year 5 PV (M)3,340.033,506.343,679.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)76,147.7079,939.2483,880.32
Equity Value (M)93,427.8097,726.58102,188.09
Shares Outstanding (M)1,287.131,287.131,287.13
Fair Value$72.59$75.93$79.39
Upside / Downside-22.30%-18.73%-15.02%

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