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TTFB Company Limited (2729.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: RestaurantsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$154.70 - $337.97$221.95
Multi-Stage$202.84 - $222.00$212.24
Blended Fair Value$217.09
Current Price$188.50
Upside15.17%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS2.37%5.80%8.682.642.238.105.677.727.156.586.025.67
YoY Growth--228.57%18.22%-72.41%42.68%-26.47%7.94%8.62%9.43%6.00%14.94%
Dividend Yield--4.89%1.34%1.33%6.93%4.07%7.29%5.08%5.31%4.64%4.49%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)336.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)313.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)23.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)67.2742.0425.22
Cash Retained (M)23.3023.3023.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-67.27-42.04-25.22
(=) Excess Retained (M)-43.96-18.74-1.92
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share-1.07-0.46-0.05
LTM Dividend per Share7.637.637.63
(+) Excess Retained per Share-1.07-0.46-0.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend6.567.187.59
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.40%3.40%4.40%
Fair Value$154.70$221.95$337.97
Upside / Downside-17.93%17.74%79.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)336.33347.75359.57371.78384.41397.47409.40
Payout Ratio93.07%92.46%91.84%91.23%90.61%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)313.02321.52330.24339.17348.33357.72378.69

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.74%6.74%6.74%
Growth Rate2.40%3.40%4.40%
Year 1 PV (M)298.30301.22304.13
Year 2 PV (M)284.26289.84295.48
Year 3 PV (M)270.87278.88287.05
Year 4 PV (M)258.10268.33278.86
Year 5 PV (M)245.92258.16270.89
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,958.597,305.077,665.22
Equity Value (M)8,316.048,701.509,101.63
Shares Outstanding (M)41.0041.0041.00
Fair Value$202.84$212.24$222.00
Upside / Downside7.60%12.59%17.77%

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