Definitive Analysis
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Launch Tech Company Limited (2488.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$123.78 - $303.23$284.17
Multi-Stage$44.00 - $48.17$46.04
Blended Fair Value$165.11
Current Price$11.58
Upside1,325.79%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS30.65%16.48%0.490.360.060.030.050.130.260.210.050.08
YoY Growth--35.60%540.97%88.27%-42.65%-59.44%-50.51%24.44%277.88%-35.07%-20.08%
Dividend Yield--5.66%20.80%2.36%1.23%1.46%4.47%4.95%3.28%0.83%1.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)638.11
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)435.04
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)127.6279.7647.86
Cash Retained (M)435.04435.04435.04
(-) Cash Required (M)-127.62-79.76-47.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)307.42355.28387.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)418.51418.51418.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.730.850.93
LTM Dividend per Share0.490.490.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.730.850.93
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$123.78$284.17$303.23
Upside / Downside968.87%2,353.97%2,518.55%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)638.11679.59723.76770.80820.90874.26900.49
Payout Ratio31.82%43.46%55.09%66.73%78.36%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.07295.34398.75514.35643.30786.84832.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)274.61277.21279.81
Year 2 PV (M)344.73351.30357.92
Year 3 PV (M)413.46425.33437.42
Year 4 PV (M)480.82499.31518.33
Year 5 PV (M)546.82573.23600.65
PV of Terminal Value (M)16,353.6917,143.5817,963.70
Equity Value (M)18,414.1219,269.9520,157.83
Shares Outstanding (M)418.51418.51418.51
Fair Value$44.00$46.04$48.17
Upside / Downside279.96%297.62%315.94%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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