Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Arabian Pipes Company (2200.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$65.15 - $130.33$122.14
Multi-Stage$19.88 - $21.78$20.81
Blended Fair Value$71.48
Current Price$6.25
Upside1,043.62%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)114.83
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)92.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)22.9714.358.61
Cash Retained (M)92.3392.3392.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-22.97-14.35-8.61
(=) Excess Retained (M)69.3677.9883.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)175.22175.22175.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.450.48
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.520.570.61
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$65.15$122.14$130.33
Upside / Downside942.45%1,854.23%1,985.30%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)114.83122.30130.24138.71147.73157.33162.05
Payout Ratio19.59%33.68%47.76%61.84%75.92%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.5041.1862.2085.77112.15141.60149.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)38.3638.7239.09
Year 2 PV (M)53.9755.0056.03
Year 3 PV (M)69.3271.3173.34
Year 4 PV (M)84.4387.6791.01
Year 5 PV (M)99.29104.08109.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,138.543,290.133,447.52
Equity Value (M)3,483.903,646.923,816.06
Shares Outstanding (M)175.22175.22175.22
Fair Value$19.88$20.81$21.78
Upside / Downside218.12%233.01%248.45%

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