Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Alkhorayef Water & Power Technologies (2081.SR)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$85.12 - $142.08$110.21
Multi-Stage$294.92 - $325.60$309.95
Blended Fair Value$210.08
Current Price$140.10
Upside49.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.002.141.070.570.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%-100.00%100.00%87.50%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%2.25%1.56%0.78%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)259.26
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.50
(=) Cash Retained (M)206.76
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)51.8532.4119.44
Cash Retained (M)206.76206.76206.76
(-) Cash Required (M)-51.85-32.41-19.44
(=) Excess Retained (M)154.91174.35187.32
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
(=) Excess Retained per Share4.434.985.35
LTM Dividend per Share1.501.501.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share4.434.985.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend5.936.486.85
WACC / Discount Rate4.82%4.82%4.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$85.12$110.21$142.08
Upside / Downside-39.24%-21.34%1.42%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)259.26256.67254.10251.56249.05246.56253.95
Payout Ratio20.25%34.20%48.15%62.10%76.05%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.5087.78122.35156.22189.40221.90234.91

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.82%4.82%4.82%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)82.9083.7484.59
Year 2 PV (M)109.11111.35113.61
Year 3 PV (M)131.57135.64139.79
Year 4 PV (M)150.63156.88163.31
Year 5 PV (M)166.66175.34184.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,681.1910,185.3110,710.22
Equity Value (M)10,322.0610,848.2611,395.90
Shares Outstanding (M)35.0035.0035.00
Fair Value$294.92$309.95$325.60
Upside / Downside110.50%121.23%132.40%

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