Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Hiwin Technologies Corp. (2049.TW)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Manufacturing - Tools & AccessoriesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$54.93 - $92.57$71.40
Multi-Stage$88.19 - $96.73$92.38
Blended Fair Value$81.89
Current Price$210.00
Upside-61.01%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-15.91%2.58%2.495.494.331.871.575.932.771.241.592.36
YoY Growth---54.55%26.88%131.75%18.75%-73.51%114.57%123.13%-22.29%-32.41%22.07%
Dividend Yield--1.04%2.00%1.73%0.78%0.41%3.19%1.17%0.34%0.98%1.98%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,612.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)884.48
(=) Cash Retained (M)728.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)322.53201.58120.95
Cash Retained (M)728.17728.17728.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-322.53-201.58-120.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)405.64526.58607.22
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)354.58354.58354.58
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.141.491.71
LTM Dividend per Share2.492.492.49
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.141.491.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.643.984.21
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Fair Value$54.93$71.40$92.57
Upside / Downside-73.84%-66.00%-55.92%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,612.651,638.191,664.141,690.501,717.281,744.481,796.82
Payout Ratio54.85%61.88%68.91%75.94%82.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)884.481,013.671,146.721,283.741,424.811,570.031,662.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.25%7.25%7.25%
Growth Rate0.58%1.58%2.58%
Year 1 PV (M)935.87945.18954.48
Year 2 PV (M)977.47997.001,016.73
Year 3 PV (M)1,010.281,040.721,071.76
Year 4 PV (M)1,035.251,077.041,120.08
Year 5 PV (M)1,053.221,106.621,162.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)26,257.9027,589.3828,974.34
Equity Value (M)31,270.0032,755.9434,299.56
Shares Outstanding (M)354.58354.58354.58
Fair Value$88.19$92.38$96.73
Upside / Downside-58.01%-56.01%-53.94%

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