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China Isotope & Radiation Corporation (1763.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Medical - DevicesSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$38.89 - $72.74$52.69
Multi-Stage$48.03 - $52.66$50.30
Blended Fair Value$51.50
Current Price$13.54
Upside280.33%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS4.23%0.00%0.390.440.380.180.140.310.280.551.000.00
YoY Growth---12.53%16.62%109.60%29.80%-55.67%10.74%-49.02%-44.35%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.78%3.74%3.20%1.01%0.62%1.67%2.08%3.32%5.54%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)822.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)264.28
(=) Cash Retained (M)558.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)164.54102.8461.70
Cash Retained (M)558.43558.43558.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-164.54-102.84-61.70
(=) Excess Retained (M)393.89455.59496.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)319.87319.87319.87
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.231.421.55
LTM Dividend per Share0.830.830.83
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.231.421.55
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.062.252.38
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.23%3.23%4.23%
Fair Value$38.89$52.69$72.74
Upside / Downside187.21%289.16%437.22%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)822.71849.32876.79905.14934.42964.64993.58
Payout Ratio32.12%43.70%55.27%66.85%78.42%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)264.28371.14484.63605.08732.81868.17919.06

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.64%7.64%7.64%
Growth Rate2.23%3.23%4.23%
Year 1 PV (M)341.45344.79348.13
Year 2 PV (M)410.19418.25426.40
Year 3 PV (M)471.16485.12499.36
Year 4 PV (M)524.97545.81567.27
Year 5 PV (M)572.18600.72630.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)13,044.8913,695.4814,371.78
Equity Value (M)15,364.8416,090.1816,843.31
Shares Outstanding (M)319.87319.87319.87
Fair Value$48.03$50.30$52.66
Upside / Downside254.76%271.50%288.89%

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