Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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China Resources Mixc Lifestyle Services Limited (1209.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$29.30 - $45.32$36.73
Multi-Stage$68.12 - $74.91$71.45
Blended Fair Value$54.09
Current Price$34.62
Upside56.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%1.340.920.420.130.290.000.030.020.000.00
YoY Growth--46.05%117.07%220.84%-55.05%0.00%-100.00%95.68%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.93%3.75%1.20%0.44%0.97%0.00%0.12%0.07%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)7,185.97
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)5,142.11
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,043.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,437.19898.25538.95
Cash Retained (M)2,043.862,043.862,043.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,437.19-898.25-538.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)606.671,145.621,504.91
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,282.502,282.502,282.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.500.66
LTM Dividend per Share2.252.252.25
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.500.66
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.522.752.91
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$29.30$36.73$45.32
Upside / Downside-15.38%6.09%30.91%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)7,185.977,114.117,042.976,972.546,902.816,833.787,038.80
Payout Ratio71.56%75.25%78.93%82.62%86.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)5,142.115,353.095,559.345,760.925,957.926,150.416,510.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.43%6.43%6.43%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)4,979.095,029.895,080.70
Year 2 PV (M)4,809.654,908.315,007.96
Year 3 PV (M)4,635.834,779.204,925.49
Year 4 PV (M)4,459.394,644.214,834.72
Year 5 PV (M)4,281.844,504.804,736.96
PV of Terminal Value (M)132,325.74139,216.25146,390.85
Equity Value (M)155,491.54163,082.66170,976.69
Shares Outstanding (M)2,282.502,282.502,282.50
Fair Value$68.12$71.45$74.91
Upside / Downside96.77%106.38%116.37%

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