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Essex Bio-Technology Limited (1061.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$80.83 - $197.05$184.67
Multi-Stage$28.42 - $31.12$29.75
Blended Fair Value$107.21
Current Price$4.41
Upside2,330.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.65%19.51%0.100.070.090.090.050.070.050.060.020.02
YoY Growth--49.25%-26.78%5.08%79.57%-26.56%25.29%-2.00%129.08%14.21%22.22%
Dividend Yield--3.49%2.80%2.23%1.80%1.16%1.07%1.20%1.19%0.72%0.43%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)576.07
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)119.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)456.81
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)115.2172.0143.21
Cash Retained (M)456.81456.81456.81
(-) Cash Required (M)-115.21-72.01-43.21
(=) Excess Retained (M)341.60384.80413.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)581.40581.40581.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.590.660.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.790.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$80.83$184.67$197.05
Upside / Downside1,732.80%4,087.46%4,368.31%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)576.07613.52653.39695.87741.10789.27812.95
Payout Ratio20.70%34.56%48.42%62.28%76.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)119.26212.04316.38433.39564.27710.34751.97

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)197.17199.04200.90
Year 2 PV (M)273.55278.76284.02
Year 3 PV (M)348.43358.43368.62
Year 4 PV (M)421.83438.05454.74
Year 5 PV (M)493.77517.62542.38
PV of Terminal Value (M)14,788.2715,502.5416,244.16
Equity Value (M)16,523.0117,294.4518,094.83
Shares Outstanding (M)581.40581.40581.40
Fair Value$28.42$29.75$31.12
Upside / Downside544.43%574.52%605.74%

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