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Definitive Analysis

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Aeroporto Guglielmo Marconi di Bologna S.p.A. (0R9D.L)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: General TransportationSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8.69 - $15.10$11.44
Multi-Stage$14.30 - $15.70$14.99
Blended Fair Value$13.21
Current Price$8.64
Upside52.93%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-10.08%0.00%0.270.000.000.000.000.450.400.280.170.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%14.54%41.51%63.06%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--3.09%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%2.96%2.59%1.83%1.12%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)24.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.54
(=) Cash Retained (M)14.49
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.803.001.80
Cash Retained (M)14.4914.4914.49
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.80-3.00-1.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)9.6811.4812.68
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)35.7535.7535.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.320.35
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.540.590.62
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Fair Value$8.69$11.44$15.10
Upside / Downside0.59%32.40%74.81%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)24.0224.4124.8025.2025.6126.0226.80
Payout Ratio39.70%49.76%59.82%69.88%79.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.5412.1514.8417.6120.4723.4224.79

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.84%6.84%6.84%
Growth Rate0.61%1.61%2.61%
Year 1 PV (M)11.2611.3711.48
Year 2 PV (M)12.7513.0013.26
Year 3 PV (M)14.0214.4414.87
Year 4 PV (M)15.1115.7216.34
Year 5 PV (M)16.0216.8317.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)442.05464.46487.77
Equity Value (M)511.19535.81561.39
Shares Outstanding (M)35.7535.7535.75
Fair Value$14.30$14.99$15.70
Upside / Downside65.49%73.46%81.74%

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